Kinis Deren
StarHunt
Mordus Angels
446
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Posted - 2015.03.07 14:58:02 -
[1] - Quote
Thank you CCP Fozzie for a very interesting dev blog. The health of the game (not just null sec) is something I take an active interest in.
Some points worth bringing up (please see WTZ forum post linked above for graph explanations and data sources):
- Null sec population does indeed appear to have increased (even before Pheobe, probably as a consequence of post Rubicon changes) but seems to have peaked. Notice the apparent inverse relationship between the hi sec and null sec populations in this Graph 1 which seems to indicate that there's a degree of null sec players choosing character movement between the two sectors of space depending upon perceived need or risk.
- Population spikes are seen after a successful expansion/release implementation or oustanding marketing campaigns (This is EVE, in particular) as can be seen in this Graph 2. In particular, notice the very spiked hi sec kill data, possibly correlating with an influx of trial accounts or newbros. Furthermore, EVE participation is very seasonal (as can be seen in Graph 1 linked above). Generally speaking, we see a steady decline in player activity as the year progresses, only reversing the trend late in Q4. We therefore have to be very careful in judging how good, or bad, a change is to EVE by focusing on just the data without any seasonal effect adjustments. In many respects Pheobe was good for EVE especially as there didn't seem to be any signs of a "winter is coming" war on the horizon that might encourage greater player participation.
- This next Graph 3 attempts to normalise the monthly kill data using monthly average PCU (thank you to Chribba for providing the PCU data) and adjustment for population distribution too. You can indeed see a bump in PVP activity in null sec but low sec saw a much higher increase for the same Pheobe effect period. Mind you, this graph also highlights how badly null sec PVP activity has lagged behind low sec since approximately mid 2012.
- Unfortunately, the sov conquest data is rather misleading since it is well known that a lot of the data points represent some form of intra or inter-coalition tranfer activity. The big spike in sov conquests after Pheobe was largely down to a certain coalition selling the sov in the south and the new encumbents grinding down the structures without a fight.
In my humble opinion, Pheobe was a good first dose of medicine for a rather sick & tired null sec. Scylla and the sov changes will have a greater impact as a consequence of Pheobe.
Keep up the good work CCP, 2015 is shaping up to be a very interesting year for all EVE players.
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